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Friday, August 29, 2008
The Future And Your Family
The Future and Your FamilyBy
William Cate
We're on the Titanic. The iceberg has been visible for over fifty years. Governments have done little to avoid the collision. Do you have a lifeboat for your children?
The World Economy Is An Illusion
Governments manipulate the economy to achieve short-term political stability. For instance, most Government statistics have a strong bias in favor of leaving the populace with a favorable view of the present economy. While special interest groups and many politicians may disproportionately benefit from the ongoing economic manipulation, the goal is to keep the electorate content. In general, Government manipulation has succeeded since the 1930s. However, the short term illusion has deferred long term problems. It hasn't solved them.
Fiscal conservatives argue that U.S. Government debt financing of over $5.7 trillion isn't in the public interest because it creates currency inflation. Over time, inflation destroys the populace's faith in the currency and the economy fails. What these fiscal conservatives fail to realize is that the trillions in debt financing creates jobs today in both the Government's growing bureaucracy and in the private sector that supplies whatever goods and services the government seeks. It creates a rosy now for a dark future.
At the end of WWII, the Bank of America introduced the first VISA credit card. The credit card industry has evolved into a multi-trillion dollar consumer-lending program. If you combine credit card debt and mortgages in the U.S, consumer debt is greater than Government debt. You can borrow your way to temporary happiness. You can't borrow your way to solvency.
Built upon this unstable Public/Private multi-trillion dollar debt structure is the multi-quadrillion dollar Derivative's Market. It puts at risk more than thirty-six times the value of all the currencies in the world. Banks and Hedge Funds are betting that governments can maintain their economies against growing debt. It's a bad bet.
In The Great Contraction by Milton Friedman and Anna
Schwartz, they argue that the Great Depression was the result of monetary forces. Applying this thesis the results are the Depression started when one Austrian bank failed. Within months, ten thousand banks failed. Unemployment was rampant for years. Extremists rose to power. WWII resulted. The Depression ended when debit spending for WWII created sufficient jobs. The success of debit spending paved the policy path for governments after 1945.
Today, the Public/Private debt structure is far worse. Derivatives put the world banking system at extreme risk. National economies are integrated. The first time a major government stumbles, the Mother of All Depressions will result. It will be global.
The Environmental Danger
Environmental issues are long term economic issues. From the Paleolithic to the present, technological advancement usually means increased population and reduced biodiversity. As any observant caver or aquarium owner realizes, the simpler the ecosystem, the more likely it is to fail.
The Industrial Revolution gave mankind the ability to destroy the global ecosystem. Most scientific research supports the fact that we are doing a very efficient job in increasing the world's population while reducing the ability to sustain that population over time. The results will be a multi-century Depression of unbelievable hardship.
Consider the Romans. Their technology produced no more than a quarter horsepower of power. Using their limited technology, they converted Southern Europe and the Mediterranean into arid agricultural land. Like wheat farming in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle during WWI that resulted in the dustbowl of the Depression, the Romans soon learned that the resulting farms weren't profitable to work. Farmers fled the land for the cities. The Romans passed laws to keep the farmers on the land. These laws tying the poor farmers to the land formed the basis for the serf system of the Dark Ages that followed.
Global Warming
Global warming is reality. Ocean levels will rise. Low-lying countries will disappear. River deltas, like the Nile, will either be covered with salt water or salt water will invade the groundwater table making irrigation agricultural impossible. Since deltas are a major source of food production around the world, food supplies will diminish. Climatic zones will move North and South from the Equator. While the North American wheat belt will go north, it will take centuries for the Taiga soil to evolve to the point where it can support commercial wheat production. As global warming continues and the population grows, the food production will fall. Within thirty years, there won't be any food exporting countries. The economic bubbles that are India and China will have burst and the struggle will be to feed people not to export goods to the West.
There are scores of environmental problems whose bills will become due in the next fifty years. We lack the resources and technology to meet the challenges of these costs. The Mother of All Depressions will be followed by a Multi-Century Dark Ages.
Your Family's Lifeboat Options
If you're over 50 years of age and without descendants, you need not worry too much about the future. You won't be around when things really turn bad. If you have a family and want to see your children survive the future, there are some steps you should consider taking now:
1. If you live in a country that is likely to have severe economic and environment problems in this Century, immigrate now. Canada or New Zealand should be your first choices. You should consider Australia, Western Europe and the United States. Immigration is difficult, but it is certainly possible.
2. Anyone under 40 years of age should have some skill that would be needed in a Depression where the local currency has become worthless. For instance, if your profession is in construction, agriculture or medicine, you have such barter skills. If you are a store manager or a bureaucrat, you should consider developing a useful hobby, like gardening, canning, or fishing, into a barter skill. You should encourage your family members to do the same.
3. Globalize to Survive. While governments discourage their citizens from moving assets offshore, it is essential to do it for the long-term survival of any family. If your children must move to another country, having the money to do so is essential to making a success of life in their new home. It's not that difficult to open an offshore bank account or create a foreign corporation. It's a wise insurance policy against an uncertain and probably bad future.
If you disagree with my view of the future, make a copy of this article and read it again in twenty years. If you believe that the preponderance of evidence supports my vision of the future and want more detailed advice on how to function in a world gone mad, email me at: Beowulfinvestments@Earthlink.net
He has been the Managing Director of Beowulf Investments [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/] since 1981 and is the Executive Director of the Global Village Investment Club [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/globalvillageinvestmentclubwelcome/]
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